Today’s U.S. reports revealed firmness in September trade prices and lean initial claims through the first two weeks of October that beat estimates, leaving upside risk for Q4 GDP and October payrolls at 2.5% and 170k respectively. For trade prices, we saw the expected 1.2% September oil import price bounce, but with a firm 0.3% export price rise. For claims, we saw a flat figure at the downwardly-revised 246k (was 249k) level from the first week of October that left a two-week stretch for claims at a new 42-year low. Claims are entering October well below already-lean September levels.
USDJPY has traded to session lows of 103.37, taking its lead from Wall Street, which has added to opening losses. Risk off has been in effect since the weak China export data, seeing the pairing tumble from two-plus month highs of 104.63 during Asian hours. Wednesday’s 103.28 lows marks the first support level along with the 50 Day EMA.
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