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The Economic Week Ahead

Market Analysis

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The May U.S. nonfarm payroll report and its modest 138k rise in jobs, along with the 66k downward revision to March and April, and the 147k gain in private payrolls, disappointed expectations for much stronger increase, especially on the heels of the robust 253k surge from the ADP survey. Nevertheless, the Dow rallied 0.3% to climb to a fresh record high of 21,206. This week’s calendar is slim and the few reports won’t impact market outlooks or views of the FOMC. The ISM nonmanufacturing index for May (Monday) will highlight the week. It’s forecast dipping to 56.5 after rising 2.3 points to 57.5 in April (which was the highest since October 2015). Revised Q1 productivity (Monday) is expected to improve to a 0.1% pace of growth from the initial 0.6% contraction rate. Labor costs are seen revised to a slower 2.3% pace from 3.0%. April factory orders (Monday) are expected to be unchanged from the revised 0.9% gain previously. The Fed’s LMCI is also due (Monday). April JOLTS (Tuesday), a favorite of Chair Yellen, will nevertheless be overlooked as the report is two months in arrears, and Friday’s jobs report told us all we need to know for now. Other data this week includes April consumer credit (Wednesday), weekly jobless claims (Thursday) and April wholesale trade (Friday).

Canada: The employment report (Friday) is the main event this week. We expect a 20.0k gain in new jobs during May following the 3.2k rise in April, as the solidly expanding Canadian economy continues to create jobs. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 6.6% in May from 6.5% in April, as the participation rate rebounds following the tumble to 65.6 in April from 65.9 in March. The capacity utilization rate (Friday) is seen jumping to 83.7% in Q1 from 82.2% in Q4, as Canada’s rapid 3.7% Q1 real GDP growth rate brought previously unused capacity back into play. May housing starts (Thursday) are expected to moderate to a 200.0k pace from 213.1k in April, as activity further unwinds from the lofty 252.3k rate in March.

Europe: The week starts with a holiday in Germany (Monday), which will leave European markets somewhat quieter than usual, though trading could thin ahead of the ECB meeting and U.K. election (both Thursday), and after the weekend terror incidents in London on Saturday. After the sharp deceleration in headline inflation in May, which backed the ECB’s steady stance, this week’s final composite PMI and Q1 GDP will give the hawks something to argue with. The services PMI reading (Monday) is expected to be confirmed at 56.8 and the composite at 56.2, both suggesting ongoing robust expansion with Markit also reporting a pick-up in job creation and rising underlying price pressures. At the same time final Q1 GDP data for the Eurozone is likely to bring an upward revision to the quarterly growth rate to 0.6% q/q (median same) from 0.5% q/q, after strong revisions to French and especially Italian and Greek numbers. Other real rate in the form of German production (Thursday) and orders (Wednesday) numbers should be mixed, with the Easter effect still having some impact.

UK: It’s general election week, with the country heading to the polls on Thursday. The incumbent Conservative looks likely to win, though by a much smaller majority that was looking to be the case just a couple of weeks ago. The weekend terror attacks could sway voters more conservatively, however. A U.K. poll from Ipsos Mori (Friday) showed the Conservatives’ margin falling to just 5 percentage points over the Labor Party. Respective support stood at 45% and 40%, with Labor up 6%. The narrowing of the Conservative Party’s lead over the last couple of weeks has been nothing short of dramatic, with many pundits blaming a poor campaign performance by PM May (who refused, amid widespread condemnation, to take part in a TV debate last week, and then made a gaffe on health care proposals). The Conservative’s lead had been 20 points at the time that prime minister called the election in April. The FT’s poll of polls still has the Conservatives with 44% support versus 35% for Labor. The currency will be the vulnerable link in sterling markets to a weak Conservative victory outcome, or a hung parliament. The calendar features the May services PMI survey (Monday), which will be a big focus following above-forecast outcomes in the PMI surveys for the construction and manufacturing sectors, and with the big services sector (which accounts for nearly 80% of GDP in the UK) having driven Q1 GDP to just 0.2% q/q growth after 0.7% q/q growth in the previous quarter.

China: The May trade report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a $45.0 bln surplus versus $38.1 bln in April. May CPI and PPI (Friday), are penciled in at 1.4% y/y from 1.2%, and 5.5% y/y from 6.4%, respectively. Japan revised Q1 GDP (Thursday) is likely to be revised slightly higher given the stronger than expected capex. April current account and May bank lending are also on tap (Thursday)

Japan: Revised Q1 GDP (Thursday) is likely to be revised slightly higher given the stronger than expected capex. April current account and May bank lending are also on tap (Thursday), with the latter having held at 3.0% y/y over the past couple of months. The April tertiary index (Friday) has been little changed to weaker over the past twelve months.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to reveal no change in the current 1.50% rate setting. The economic data docket is busy this week. Q1 GDP (Wednesday) is seen rising just 0.2% (q/q, sa) after the 1.1% gain in Q4. The current account deficit (Tuesday) is seen narrowing to -A$1.0 bln in Q1 from -A$3.9 bln in Q4. The trade surplus (Thursday) is projected to narrow to A$2.0 bln in April from A$3.1 bln in March Housing finance (Friday) is anticipated to rise 0.5% m/m in April after the 0.5% dip in March.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst

HotForex

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