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The Economic Week Ahead

Market Analysis

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The U.S. data slate is heavy and the reports should be consistent with modest Q4 growth as the overall economy has yet to be impacted by Trump. Kicking off the year will be the December ISM manufacturing index (Tuesday). Also on tap (Tuesday) is the final December Markit PMI reading and November construction spending. Construction spending is expected to rise 0.6% after November’s 0.5% gain. Vehicle sales for December (Wednesday) are expected to inch up slightly with autos at a 5.2 mln pace. The ADP private payrolls survey (Thursday) is expected at a 175k pace, down from 216k in November. The ISM non-manufacturing index (Thursday) is projected sliding to 56.5 from 57.2 in November. The final Markit services reading is also due (Thursday). The December nonfarm payroll report (Friday) will highlight and complete the data for the first week of the new year. Expectations are for a 185k increase, after November’s 178k rise, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.7% from 4.6%. The workweek is projected steady at 34.4 hours. Average hourly earnings are expected to rebound to 0.2% after dipping 0.1% in November. The FOMC minutes to the December 13, 14 policy meeting are on tap (Wednesday). Though the report would usually be highly anticipated by the markets, its importance has been diminished by the dot-plot showing estimates for three quarter point hikes in 2017, and by the fact that the usually dovish Chair Yellen seemed fully supportive of the more hawkish stance.

Canada: December employment report, trade deficit both highlight the week on Friday. Other highlights include the industrial product price index (Thursday). The Ivey PMI is also due (Friday), while the RBC’s manufacturing index for December (Tuesday) is the first report out of the gate for the new year. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week.

Europe: Final PMI readings are not expected to bring any real surprises and are expected to confirm manufacturing confidence for the Eurozone (Monday) remains healthy with the index at 54.9. ESI economic sentiment indicator (Friday) is expected to rise to 106.9 versus 106.5 in November.  Also due are German manufacturing orders (Friday) and German jobless rate (Tuesday)

UK: 2017 will be a challenging year for the UK, both economically and politically. Creeping price pressures, caused by the weaker pound, which most economists expect will erode real household income, and Brexit-related uncertainty, which has already been suppressing business investment, are expected to manifest in slowing growth momentum. The U.K. calendar this week features the December PMI surveys and the BoE lending data for November.

China: The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 50.7 from 50.9 December services PMI (Thursday) is seen improving to 53.5 from 53.1

Japan: Will be shut through to Tuesday for a bank holiday. The December Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is expected to dip to 51.8 from the previous 51.9 reading. December auto sales and the Markit services PMI are also due (Thursday).

Australia: The November deficit (Friday) is expected to narrow to -A$0.3 bln from -A$1.5 bln in October. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Market Analyst

HotForex

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