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The Economic Week Ahead

Market Analysis

Main Macro Events This Week

The U.S. calendar is packed with key events and data, but none more important than President Trump’s announcement of his choice for Fed chair. That will have implications for years to come. An announcement will be forthcoming this week; Powell as chair, and Taylor for vice chair?

United States: The FOMC meets this week, the Fed is unanimously expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting Tuesday, Wednesday. Although the back-to-back quarterly growth rates of 3.1% and 3.0% for Q2 and Q3 could argue for a tightening, inflation remains tame, and more importantly, there has been no Fedspeak to suggest a move is imminent. No press conference. September income and consumption (Monday) will help fine tune the quarter’s GDP outlook after the report of a 3.0% growth rate last Friday. October consumer confidence is forecast rising to 121. The Chicago PMI should fall to 62.0 in October after jumping 6.3 points to 65.2 in September. ADP headlines (Wednesday) along with the October ISM manufacturing numbers. We’re projecting a 200k jump in private payroll from the ADP, while the manufacturing index should dip to 58.5. October vehicle sales (Thursday) should are expected to decline amid ongoing hurricane disruptions. September construction spending also is likely to be distorted by the various hurricane effects. Nonfarm payrolls (Friday) are forecast surging 320k -400k in October, as the labor market gets back in gear following the hurricane disruptions that knocked employment down by 33k in September. The unemployment rate should hold at 4.2%. The ISM nonmanufacturing index (Friday) should dip to 58.5 in October (median 58.5), giving back some of the 4.5 point gain to 59.8 in September, which was the highest since August 2005.

The earnings slate remains very heavy, though not as bad as last week, which was the busiest for the Q3 season

Canada: August GDP (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.1% m/m after the flat reading in July. The industrial product price index is seen expanding 0.5% in September after the 0.3% rise in August, as firmer gasoline prices more than offset the drag of a stronger loonie. Employment (Friday) is projected to grow 20.0k in October after the 10.0k gain in September. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.2%, matching September’s rate. Average weekly earnings are expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y pace, matching the growth rate in September. The trade deficit (Friday) is anticipated to narrow to -C$3.0 bln in September from -C$3.4 bln in August. Poloz and Wilkins due to speak Tuesday.

Europe: German HICP (Monday) is seen steady at 1.8%, French inflation reading (Tuesday) likely to nudge higher to 1.2%. The overall Eurozone HICP (Tuesday) should be unchanged at 1.5%. Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Thursday) expected to be confirmed at 58.6. Advanced readings for French GDP and overall Eurozone Q3 GDP (both Tuesday) to show quarterly growth rates that are in line with the first quarter at 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. Spanish GDP meanwhile is expected to nudge lower slightly to 0.8%. The recovery clearly has reached the job market and PMIs also suggest ongoing job creation as companies struggle to fill still strong orders growth and expand production. The German labour market is already very tight and jobless numbers (Monday) are in our view likely to pick up slightly after a stronger than expected dip in September. Still, even the expected pick up of 4K,  would leave the October jobless rate at a very low 5.6%. For the Eurozone unemployment rate (Tuesday) we are looking for a decline to 9.0% from 9.1%

UK: UK data reports over the last week have mostly disappointed. The calendar is highlighted by the BoE’s November Monetary Policy Committee (announcing Thursday), which will be accompanied by the publication of its quarterly Inflation Report. Following the BoE’s guidance, markets are fully expecting the central bank to make its first hike of the repo rate in 10 years, taking it to 0.50% from 0.35%.We expect the BoE to package the tightening in dovish guidance. Data releases this week include September data from the BoE on lending (Monday), which we expect to show mortgage approvals come in near unchanged at 66.0k, October Gfk consumer confidence (Tuesday), which we forecast dipping to -10 from -9 in the month prior, and the October PMI surveys. We expect the manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) to come in at 55.9 which would be the same reading as in September. We anticipate the servicers PMI (Friday) in at 53.3 after 53.6 in the month previous.

China: CFLP October manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is forecast sliding to 52.0 from 52.4. The Caixin/Markit PMI (Wednesday) likely eased to 50.5 from 51.0.

Japan: The BoJ headlines and on Tuesday, no policy changes are expected. The Bank will likely recommit to ultra-accommodative policy settings. As for data, September retail sales (Monday) are expected to dip to a 0.5%. September unemployment (Tuesday) is seen unchanged at 2.7%, with the job offers/seekers ratio likely to tick up to 1.53. PCE (due Tuesday), should show consumption at a 0.5% y/y pace from 0.6%. September industrial production (Tuesday) is penciled in at -2.0% y/y, tumbling from August’s 2.0%. September housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to contract further to a -3.0% y/y rate from -2.0% previously, while construction orders are also slated (Tuesday). Also on the slate are October manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) and October consumer confidence (Thursday), expected at 43.5 from 43.9. Japan is closed Friday for Culture Day.

Australia: CPI (Wednesday) is the focus this week, with a 0.9% gain expected in Q3 after the tame 0.2% rise in Q2. The trade price report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 1.0% drop in Q3 import prices after the 0.1% dip in Q2. Export prices are seen falling 3.0% in Q3 following the 5.7% pull-back in Q2. The Q3 PPI is due Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Debelle speaks (Thursday) on “Uncertainty.”

 

 

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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst

HotForex

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