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The Economic Week Ahead

Market Analysis

The Trump bump seemed to get renewed life last week on the release of tax reform plans. That added to an already optimistic tone after signs of solid consumption growth and fixed investment in the U.S. Q2 GDP and with the strength in capital spending evidenced in the August durable goods. Meanwhile, the Asian and European economies are contributing to growth too, with the strength in recent PMIs underpinning positive outlooks.

United States: The September nonfarm payrolls will be the attention-getter which expected at 20k increase after the disappointing 156k gain in August. The September manufacturing ISM (Monday) should slip to 57.5 on the drag from Hurricane Irma, after a stronger than expected 2.5 increase to 58.8 in August. Construction spending for August (Monday) is expected to be unchanged. September vehicle sales (Tuesday) are expected to improve to a 17.0 mln clip, from 16.0 mln previously, though there’s downside risk from the hurricanes. The September ADP (Wednesday) should climb 190k following Augusts 237k surge. There should be little hurricane effect here given the way the data is tabulated. The services ISM (Wednesday) is seen edging up to 55.5 after rising 1.4 points to 55.3 previously. The August trade deficit (Thursday) is forecast narrowing to -$42.5 bln versus July’s -$43.7 bln.

Fedspeak: The U.S. calendar includes may of the key economic reports for the month, but Fedspeak is likely to overshadow, especially as the numbers will be impacted by the varied effects from the hurricanes. Fed Chair Yellen (Wednesday) will be an obvious focal point. Fed Chair Yellen’s comments will be monitored. But after reiterating the Fed’s gradual policy stance last week, she’s unlikely to provide any fresh revelations in her comments on community banking. Along with Yellen, other speakers include Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A (Monday). Governor Powell (Thursday) speaks on the Treasury market. SF Williams will be at a community banking event (Thursday). Harker and George (Thursday), along with Bostic and Kaplan (Friday), speak at a workforce development conference. NY Fed’s Dudley could be the most enlightening with his remarks on monetary policy (Friday). Also, Bullard speaks on the economy (Friday). Along with Yellen, current FOMC voters include Kaplan, Dudley, Powell, Harker, while Williams and Bostic are voters in 2018.

CanadaIn Canada, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Leduc speaks on “Firm creation and productivity in the Canadian Economy.” The text of Tuesday’s speech will be available at 12:30 ET. Governor Poloz’s comments from last week provide some insight into the Bank’s view on this topic. The docket of economic data includes the usual early month suspects, notably trade and employment. Employment (Friday) is expected to expand 20.0k in September after the 22.2k rise in August. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.2%, matching August. The trade deficit is projected to slightly narrow to -C$2.9 bln in August from -C$3.0 bln in July. The Ivey PMI (Friday) is projected to slip to 55.0 in September from 56.3 in August. The Markit manufacturing PMI for September is due Monday. Dealer reported vehicle sales for September are expected Tuesday.

Europe:It’s a relatively quiet week that’s thin on data releases, which are unlikely to bring any change to the ECB outlook. There are some ECBspeakers, while the central bank also releases the minutes of the last meeting (Thursday). Merkel’s quest for allies in the new parliament will continue, but is unlikely to make much progress in a week that includes a holiday on Tuesday. Merkel will remain in office as caretaker until a new Chancellor has been elected. The data calendar has final September PMI readings, with the manufacturing PMI (Monday) expected to be confirmed at 58.2 and the Services reading (Wednesday) at 55.6, which should see the composite confirmed at 56.7. The highlight of the week will be German manufacturing orders (Friday) where we are looking for a rebound of 0.5% m/m, after the correction in August. Eurozone growth is broadening and strengthening and even the German recovery is for once underpinned by consumption and domestic demand rather than exports. And while the ECB has acknowledged the improvement, it still sees insufficient changes to underlying inflation to end QE just yet.

UK: Brexit remains a major uncertainty and there are several reasons for investors to tread carefully. Growth was confirmed to be weakest in four years and half the growth the Eurozone saw over the same quarter. Moody’s downgraded sovereign debt. And there have been fresh signals from Brexit negotiators that it’s going to take longer than expected to finalize divorce terms (and so delay the start of new trading talks). The calendar this week is highlighted by the release of PMIs for September, which will be scrutinized given the forward-looking nature of the surveys and their close correlation with real economic performance. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) has us expecting a dip to 56.2 from 56.9, correcting what had been unexpected strength in the August survey. This would still point to decent expansion in the sector, which has been the biggest beneficiary of the weaker pound and strong growth in key export markets. The construction PMI is on Tuesday while the services PMI on Wednesday.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is thin this week. QV new home prices for September are due Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets on November 9. They held rates steady at 1.75% last week, matching expectations. The statement by Acting Governor Spencer was consistent with no change in rates for an extended period.

Japan: A solid Tankan survey of business conditions out of Japan this morning, which showed optimism at small manufacturers to be at a decade high had little impact on the yen, with the BoJ still seen as being well behind the Fed in terms of cycle, with chronically tepid inflation still remaining a factor in Japan’s economic circumstance. The Tankan showed that labour shortages to be at a 25-year low, which could be the harbinger of second-round inflation via higher wage demands. September consumer confidence (Tuesday) is penciled in at 44.0 from 43.3, while September services PMI (Wednesday) is forecast at 52.0 from 51.6.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia meets (Tuesday) and is expected to hold rates steady at 1.50%. Deputy Governor Debelle takes part in a panel discussion (Thursday). The data docket is headlined by retail sales (Thursday) and the trade balance (Thursday). Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in August after the flat reading (0.0%) in July. The trade surplus is seen improving to A$1.0 bln in August from the A$0.5 bln surplus in July. Building approvals are expected to bounce 2.0% m/m in August after the 1.7% drop in July. The Melbourne Institute inflation index for September is due Monday. September ANZ job ads are scheduled for Tuesday.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

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