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Sterling trades very mixed

Market Analysis

GBPJPY and GBPUSD, H1

Cable logged a three-session low of 1.3513, tracking declines in EURUSD. The GBPJPY cross has also declined today, amid yen outperformance, while the pound has clawed out a three-week high in the case against the underperforming euro. In the bigger view, Cable has been trending choppily higher since April last year, though momentum indicators, such as the 14-day relative strength indicator, have been showing ‘bearish divergence’ (declining while spot prices move higher) over the last couple of months, portending a possible directional shift. Cable has resistance at 1.3577-80, and support at 1.3513-15 and 1.3495. Hence a daily close below the latter would affirm that a directional shift is a foot. On the other hand only a break above the 20-period Ma in the 4-hour chart, could suggest some positive momentum for the pair, in short term.

Meanwhile,in the intra-day picture, has picked up a bit, recovering 38.2% from the loss seen overnight. However,the failure of breaking above the 38.2% level at 1.3540, triggered a short position with the possibility of a retest of the support level at 1.3515. Momentum indicators comply with this weak intra-day picture, since RSI is at 39, MACD remains negative since Morning, while the pair is traded below the short-term, 9-period MA.

Another interesting pound cross is GBPJPY, since yen rally continues for now. The pair broke earlier the 2nd Daily support , while significantly it broke also the 200-period MA in the hourly chart. It is currently traded in the mid 152s, while it seems extending its lower Bollinger Bands patterns. Intraday Momentum indicators signalled negative momentum, however the daily picture of the GBPJPY is still positive, with the pair remaining in the Upper Daily Bollinger Bands Pattern.

Meanwhile, an intra-day Short position was taken on the break of S2, at 152.50, with support at round 153.00 level and target at S3, at 152.15.

On the UK fundamental front, the latest retail sales report today from the BRC found that non-food sales contracted 1.4% y/y in Q4 2017, the biggest decline of this measure since the crisis days of 2009. Prime minister May has reshuffled her cabinet, though to little impact on sterling markets. The FTSE 100 clocked another record high, which is largely a reflection of the global trend, being an index laden with major multinational corporations.

 

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

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