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NFP a miss but USDIndex closes week up again

Market Analysis

USDIndex, Weekly                 

Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls headline number came at a negative 33,000 from expectations of a positive 80,000. However, the key Earnings figures rallied to 2.9% on a year on year basis, and up to 0.5% on a month on month basis, unemployment fell to multi year lows at 4.2% and the August NFP figure was revised up to 169,000 from 156,000.  All the data points, save the August revision, are distorted by the tragic hurricanes of Harvey and in particular Irma. However, all in all this was a robust NFP set of figures and almost “nails on” an FOMC interest rate hike in December. Next week’s FOMC Minutes will make interesting reading. The “weather report”, as many are dubbing the September jobs numbers, are likely to be the first of many economic outliers created by the 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season. USOil prices have fallen and closed the week at $49.19 as Hurricane Nate made land fall this weekend.

The USD rallied on the NFP numbers, buoyed by the strong earnings numbers and August revisions. The USDIndex has broken over a key resistance this week at 93.30 and has closed a fourth consecutive week of gains at 93.60. Next stop is the cluster of the 23.6 Fibonacci level, the important 20 period moving average and the latest Fractal High all around the 94.00-94.30 zone.  A breach of this level and 95.00 and 96.00 become realistic. Support is now offered by the 200 period moving average at 92.75 and the psychological 92.00.

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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst


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