Trading Forex and CFDs is risky

Macro Events & News

Market Analysis

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Japanese bourses managing marginal gains as the Yen falls against the Dollar. Stock futures in the U.S. are down, but U.K. futures are slightly in positive territory after the UK100 managed to close with a marginal gain on Thursday. Eurozone bond and stock markets outperformed yesterday after Draghi managed to dampen tapering fears, while postponing any decisions on future policy to December. Bund futures moved sideways in after hour trade, and oil prices are falling towards USD 50 per barrel, which will dampen investor appetite but Eurozone markets are likely to continue outperforming their U.K. counterparts in the wake of Draghi’s statement yesterday. The data calendar is relatively quiet, with only U.K. public finance data, but the ECB’s survey of professional forecasts will give clues about the inflation outlook and comments from Weidmann may add a more hawkish spin to Draghi’s message yesterday. The GER30 is awaiting earnings reports from Daimler as positive numbers from SAP are underpinning the index ahead of the official open.

Kuroda Speech: BOJ will evaluate appropriate yield curve at every meeting, “ideal” can change depending on economy, not immediately thinking of lowering 80tln yen goal and possible to revise reaching 2% inflation time frame (currently target is for Inflation to hit 2% during 2017) !! He also reemphasized that “buying, selling FX is under the jurisdiction of the Finance Ministry”.

ECB – Decisions on QE Postponed until December: Nothing new from the ECB, with major decisions postponed, pretty much as we expected. While Draghi initially spooked markets by saying that an extension to the QE program hasn’t been discussed today, he still managed to keep investors happy in the end, by adding that an abrupt halt to asset purchases is unlikely. With the current program, which runs until March, confirmed at EUR 80 bln per month, this implies an extension of the asset purchase schedule, even if it may come at somewhat reduced levels.

US Data Reports: Revealed firm Philly Fed component data despite a small headline drop to 9.7 in October from a 19-month high of 12.8, alongside a 13k bounce in initial claims in the BLS survey week to a still respectable 260k that remains consistent with a remarkably lean 253k October average. We also saw a 3.2% September existing home sales rise to a 5.47 mln rate that beat estimates, alongside a 0.2% September leading indicators bounce that reversed a 0.2% August drop. The monthly data appear poised for an upturn into Q4, as the bounce in oil prices is allowing a mining and factory output recovery just as the big six-quarter inventory headwind comes to a close.

Main Macro Events Today                

  • Canada Retail Sales – Retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in August after the 0.1% dip in July. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen expanding 0.4% in August following the 0.1% dip in July. Gasoline prices dipped just 0.9% in August after the 5.6% plunge in July, according to the CPI . Hence we should see the gasoline station sales component exert a very slight drag on total and ex-autos sales. Vehicle sales downshifted to a slower pace in July, and that modest slowing persisted in August according to industry sales figures. Sales volumes grew 0.3% in July, suggestive of some awaking in the consumer after spending declines from March to June.
  • Canada CPI – CPI is also expected to rise 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.2% drop in August. Total CPI is seen accelerating to a 1.4% y/y pace in September from the 1.1% rate in August. A pick-up in gasoline prices is expected to drive the gain in total CPI during September relative to August, contrasting with the hefty gasoline price declines that were a drag on total CPI in July and August. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI is seen rising 0.2% m/m in September after the flat reading in August, leaving a 1.8% y/y pace that is identical to the growth rate in in August.

 

Click here to access the HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register  the next webinar will start in:

Stuart Cowell

Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.