European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, with Australia’s ASX outperforming as investors piled into miners and banks. So Australia’s hot streak continued with a more than 0.7% rise, while gains elsewhere were more muted as concerns about North Korea emerged and markets speculate about a more hawkish Fed post Yellen. North Korea warned that a nuclear war could “break out any moment”. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are narrowly mixed. May’s visit to Brussels yesterday doesn’t seem to have brought a major breakthrough while in Spain the situation is tensing up after Madrid prepares to replace Catalan security officials after the leaders of two grassroots independence groups were jailed yesterday. Amid ongoing political tensions the European calendar is heating up, with U.K. inflation data for September as well as German ZEW investor confidence and final Eurozone September HICP numbers.
FX Updates: The dollar has continued to trade perkily. USDJPY flipped back above 112.00 as major Asian stock indices hit 10-year highs after Wall Street hit fresh record highs on Monday. The pair has a well-established tendency to correlate with notable moves in global equity markets, though persisting concerns about political disharmony in Spain and North Korea (Pyongyang threatened nuclear war could “break out at any moment”) may have been curtailing yen losses. EURUSD declined for a fourth consecutive session, this time logging a out a one-week low at 1.1756. The dollar also held firm against the Australian dollar and other dollar-bloc currencies, along with sterling and other currencies. Sterling for its part has seen little reaction thus far to news that British PM May and EU Commission President Juncker agreed at a supper meeting last night that Brexit negotiations should “accelerate over the months to come.”
Main Macro Events Today
- UK PPI & CPI – Expectations – CPI at 3.0% y/y headline from 2.9% in August, and PPI at 1.2% in September from 1.6% m/m
- EU CPI and German ZEW – Expectations -EU CPI seen unchanged at 1.5% y/y and German ZEW to 20.0 from 17.0
- BoE Gov. Carney – Due to testify before the Treasury Select Committee, in London.
- US Industrial Production – Expectation – at 0.4% after dropping 0.9%, which should leave capacity utilization at 76.4% from 76.1%.
Charts of the Day
Support and Resistance Levels
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