Eurozone ESI economic confidence came in higher than expected (6-years high), at 108.2 up from 107.8 in December. After the mixed German numbers forecasts for the ESI had been cautious, but in the event the numbers were solid, with consumer confidence being revised up from an already good preliminary reading. Together with the expected uptick in German headline HICP to around 2%, the data will add to tapering concerns, especially after ECB’s Knot suggested that data doesn’t justify ongoing quantitative easing.
EURUSD has settled just under 1.0700, earlier logging an intraday low at 1.0687, which put in a bit more distance from Friday’s high at 1.0740. The euro managed little more than a 10 pip rise following the perky showing in German state inflation data. EUR-USD on Friday failed to sustain a break above pivot zone around 1.0706-11, which is tentatively a sign of growing downside momentum. Much will depend on dollar, with markets still trying to assess the net impact Trump’s protectionist and immigration curtailments versus his bold plans to revive the economy. The 30- and 50-day moving averages on a sixty-minute timeframe are at 1.0701 and 1.0695 now mark key supports.
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